The quiet consolidation of Scottish social care

Scotland has closed 328 adult care homes since 2011. That number is quoted often. What is quoted less is that registered places fell by only 2,881 over the same period — fewer than nine beds per closure.

Our latest sector commentary looks at what that gap means. The homes that closed were small ones. The average Scottish care home is now a quarter larger than it was fourteen years ago, without any policy having decided it should be. And when we set today's capacity against where the older population is projected to grow, the two are pulling in opposite directions: the council areas with the fewest places per head of older population are, on average, the ones ageing fastest.

This piece draws on the PHS Care Home Census, Care Inspectorate grading data, SSSC workforce statistics and NRS projections, and sets out what we think follows for providers, commissioners and policy. It is written to be argued with. If your local picture differs from the national data, we would like to hear it.